Stifel Upgrades XM On DOJ Merger Approval News
Stifel analyst Kit Spring has issued an upgrade following DOJ approval of the merger between Sirius and XM.
REPORT EXCERPTS
Merger Synergies Underappreciated; Upgrading to Buy w/$18.40 Target
DOJ approved merger; stocks under-reacted: Despite an estimated$4.8B of synergies, XMSR and SIRI shares had a muted impact in our view indicating either skepticism on the size/timing of the synergies or a view that DOJ approval means there is too much competition. The 5.1% merger spread indicates a healthy degree of skepticism of FCC approval.
FCC approval likely to be next catalyst: We expect the FCC to approvethe merger within weeks with impositions that do not materially impact our $4.8B of merger synergies, which already include the concessions of a lacarte pricing, adult tiers, and price freezes. Unlikely surprise impositions that would reduce our synergies would be 1) required inclusions of HDradios (request by iBiquity) – too onerous as XMSR/SIRI does not make radios, and 2) spectrum giveback – unlikely as it would reduce benefits to consumers and adjacent WCS spectrum is still not being used.
Tyler Savery Position – Long Sirius, Long XM
>>> Merger Synergies Underappreciated; Upgrading to Buy w/$18.40 Target
I wonder whether it ever occurred to Kit that the market simply doesn’t buy the BS estimates of synergies that are being tossed around?